Jaipur : The Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW) — one of Asia’s leading climate think tanks — today hosted a roundtable in Jaipur on “Erratic Monsoon and Urban Flooding: Challenges and the Way Forward.” CEEW researchers presented evidence of how shifting rainfall patterns, especially in Rajasthan, are intensifying risks such as floods and urban waterlogging in many cities, underscoring the urgent need for preparedness.
Researchers also discussed findings of CEEW’s 2024 study “Decoding India’s Changing Monsoon Patterns,” which conducted a pan-India, sub-district-level (tehsil-level) assessment of changing monsoon patterns during the southwest monsoon (June–September) and the northeast monsoon (October–December).It quantifies changes in rainfall patterns during the past decade (2012–2022), using statistical indices endorsed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
One key finding is that 55 per cent of all tehsils in India saw an increase of more than 10 per cent in southwest monsoon rainfall in the past decade, while 11 per cent saw a decline compared to the climatic baseline (1982–2011). A statistically significant rise was observed in traditionally dry regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, central Maharashtra, and parts of Tamil Nadu. Nearly 77 per cent of Rajasthan’s tehsils witnessed increased June–September rainfall, often exceeding 30 per cent from the from the climate baseline of 1982-2011. The state also saw one of the sharpest increases in heavy rainfall days, leading to repeated floods in recent years. Notably, 48 per cent of tehsils in India recorded more than 10 per cent higher rainfall in October alone, linked to delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon.
Dr Vishwas Chitale, Fellow, CEEW, said, “Rajasthan’s experience shows how climate change is rewriting the story of the monsoon. Historically dry regions are now receiving more intense rainfall within short spans, overwhelming cities and farmlands alike. To prepare for this new normal, Rajasthan must invest in granular climate observation networks, high-tech early warning systems, and local-level climate action plans that aim at building climate resilience at the local scale.”
Urban flooding risks were a major theme at the roundtable. CEEW analysis shows that built-up areas in India grew by around 31 per cent (~2.5 million hectares) between 2005–06 and 2022–23, while more than half of urban water bodies face encroachment. As rainfall intensity rises, drainage systems — already inadequate — are increasingly overwhelmed, heightening risks of waterlogging, infrastructure damage, and loss of livelihoods.
Nitin Bassi, Fellow, CEEW, said, “Floods and waterlogging are no longer exceptional events. Such events are becoming part of our urban reality, making it important for cities like Jaipur to develop Urban Flood Risk Management Action Plans. These plans include revisiting the rainfall analysis to design better drainage and computation of flood risk indices to prioritise interventions in the flooding ‘hot spots’. This will help the administration to plan better and safeguard lives and livelihoods from such extreme climate events.”
