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Coronavirus: India may have 40 crore infections by May report says

Coronavirus: India may have 40 crore infections by May report says


Johns Hopkins University has said that it had not authorised the Center for Diseases Dynamics, Economic and Policy (CDDEP) to use its logo on a Covid-19 research report predicting that "India may see as many as 100 million people contract the coronavirus infection". In a reply to a tweet from a Twitter user named, Neelakshi Mann, Johns Hopkins University, through its verified Twitter handle said: “The use of our logo was not authorized in this case and JHU is engaging with CDDEP on it. Thank you.”

The CDDEP continues to carry the report and its highlights on its website, however, the report doesn't carry a Johns Hopkins University logo now. The report, in question, had said that in the next months, as many as 100 million people in India are likely to contract the coronavirus infection and these numbers are expected to soar to around 300 million to 400 million by July, without interventions.

On March 26, Joint Secretary (Health) Lav Agarwal said that there was no proof of community transmission of coronavirus in India as yet, reiterating the government's stance that the country has not yet entered 'Stage-3' of the COVID-19 transmission. However, contrary to this, the report noted that community transmission (Stage-3) of COVID-19 in India had most likely started in early March.

The report uses the IndiaSIM Model to arrive at the key conclusions pertaining to the spread of coronavirus in India. The key parameters used include the force of infection, age- and gender-specific infection rates, severe infection, and case-fatality rates. The graph depicts the numbers in three possible scenarios depending on the risk factor: high, medium and low. Read More...

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